Decoding the crypto asset market

BTC plunged by nearly 81% in 2018, while the 2022 bear market has seen Bitcoin dip by 75%.

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The crypto market continues to be in a state of turmoil with the market shedding from it’s all-time high gains by over 72%. While adverse macroeconomic conditions and the US Fed’s hike of interest rate in a bid to control inflation dampened the market enthusiasm, multiple catastrophes in the form of the Terra-UST crash followed by 3AC and Celsius near-insolvency plight have added fuel to the fire. 

The current market cap stands at $854 billion, down from $2.2 trillion at the beginning of 2022. Bitcoin (BTC) and Etherum (ETH) are barely managing to stay afloat their critical support levels and currently stand at $19,740 and $1,076 respectively. 

2018 bear market

If we look at the 2018 bear market, the market cap plunged by more than 86% to reach $3,200, after touching a high of $19,000 in 2017. Let’s make a head-on comparison with the 2018 bear market to find if we are undergoing a similar market condition or are conditions different this time? 

The 2018 market crash followed the initial coin offering (ICO) hype that had multiple scam projects duping investors of their money. At that time, the number of active wallets dropped from 1.2 million to as low as 402,000. However, in 2022 the crypto addresses remain stable at around 1 million despite the decline. Traders, both retail and institutional, continue to show confidence and long-term optimism in the market. 

<source:, Crytpocap>

Talking about Bitcoin (BTC) – BTC plunged by nearly 81% in 2018, while the 2022 bear market has seen Bitcoin dip by 75%. The whole of 2022 has seen BTC below its 200-day moving average similar to 2018. And for a long time, BTC has failed to break above its 200-week moving average (WMA) which stands around $21k. The 200-WMA is an indicator of the average value of past prices and will be broken at some point as it did the last three times when BTC slipped below it and has to hold above it. Investors are in consensus that 200-WMA is a critical resistance but it might take some more months before BTC moves above it.

<source:, Binance>

Outlook for Bitcoin

BTC is expected to plunge by another 10-15% if it is to reach 2018 lows in percentage. However, it is predicted that the whole of 2022 will be bearish before the market takes an upswing. If BTC’s realized value is somewhere around $23,000, BTC is trading below it and the crypto market may soon find the bear market bottom as the asset price dips below this level only when the bottom is near. However, nothing could be said with certainty amidst the controversies and contagion of failures the market is witnessing right now.

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Disclaimer: This article was authored by Giottus Crypto Exchange as a part of a paid partnership with The News Minute. Crypto-asset or cryptocurrency investments are subject to market risks such as volatility and have no guaranteed returns. Please do your own research before investing and seek independent legal/financial advice if you are unsure about the investments.


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XRP price muted as cryptocurrency markets await Fed’s Powell testimony

  • Bitcoin retraces 20% since hitting the new YTD low at $17,592.
  • Ethereum price has a high-risk tolerance with an equally high reward.
  • XRP continues to see turbulence amidst the SEC dispute.

UPDATE: XRP price is still trading almost muted, staying within a very tight range in between the key $0.30 support and the now immediate $0.35 resistance. The price of Ripple has somewhat decoupled in the past few days from the price action of most cryptocurrencies, which have been on a rollercoaster. The judicial battle between Ripple Labs and the US SEC is what keeps XRP community on the sideways, as they await further developments on the availability of former SEC official William Hinman’s emails and the relevancy on court of Exhibit 0 documents. In the meantime, pessimistic Bitcoin price predictions are again turning the crypto ecosystem to the downside. BTC price was unable to close above $21,000 on Tuesday and has tested the psychological $20,000 support on Wednesday ahead of a highly awaited testimony of Fed chief Jerome Powell in front of the US congress, which should present some hints of next monetary policy steps from the US central bank.

The crypto market is showing signs of a decent recovery. It may be too early to call a bottom, but multiple signals point to that possibility.

Bitcoin price on a sneaky hike

Bitcoin price is currently up 20% since the fear-invoking sell-off that brought the peer-to-peer digital currency back into the mid-17,000 zone, a level unseen since 2020. On Tuesday, Bitcoin trades at $21,000 as optimism is subtly encouraging more transactions on the Volume Profile indicator. Investors looking to partake in the discounted BTC price should consider reading last week’s outlook for an in-depth analysis and precise invalidation level.

Bitcoin price now targets a $25,700 area but is still submerged under the 200-week moving average at $22,500. Thus investors should expect turbulence amidst the optimistic recovery rally. A break and retest above $22,500 could produce enough fuel to propel the BTC price back to $25,000. 

Invalidation for the recovery rally is a breach of $17,592. If this were to occur, $16,000 would be the next target resulting in a 24% decrease from the current Bitcoin price.


BTC/USDT 1-Day Chart

Ethereum price has a higher risk tolerance

Ethereum price currently trades at $1,170 as the bulls continue gaining traction following the ground-shaking sell-off that occurred over the weekend when ETH price briefly struck $881. The Relative Strength Index shows double bottom signals on a historical indicator low, which warrants the idea that a strong counter-trend rally will occur.

Ethereum price hovers just $30 below the 200-week moving average. A breach above this resistance, followed by a retest, could be the catalyst to induce the highly anticipated recovery rally. Conventional targets lie in the $1,700 level, with FOMO targets at $2,700 for up to a 200% increase from the current price. 

Ethereum is a riskier digital asset because it has not breached the parallel channel and hovers nearly 70% above the bullish macro invalidation level at $388. If the bullish macro level were to get breached, the ETH price could fall as low as $100 for a 90% decline from the current Ethereum price.


ETH/USDT 4-Hour Chart

Ripple price continues to coil 

Ripple price could be setting up for the final move south as the mid-$0.30 zone is providing resistance once again. The choppy price action comes as no surprise as the XRP community continues the ongoing feud against the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). 

Ripple price currently trades at $0.33 amidst the legal dispute. This week the SEC drew the first sword, filing a request to prevent Ripple from sealing essential documents pertaining to “exhibit 0”. The objection filed justifies the current market behavior as bulls are unsure how their portfolio will perform in such a volatile new correlated market. If market conditions persist, a $0.25 target still has a high probability of getting breached.

Ripple price must hurdle the $0.38 level to confidently call a local bottom. If $0.38 were to get breached, the bulls could aim for $0.64, resulting in a 100% increase from the current XRP price.   


XRP/USDT 9-Hour Chart


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How great are the chances to see the fall of the cryptocurrency market?

The bulls could not keep the rise going after yesterday’s bounceback, and all of the top 10 coins are in the red zone again.


Top coins by CoinMarketCap


Yesterday afternoon, buyers were able to restore the price of Bitcoin (BTC) to the level of $38,950. At the end of the day, the fuse of the bulls dried up, and the bears immediately returned the pair below the level of the two-hour EMA55.


BTC/USD chart by TradingView

Tonight, the BTC price decline continued below the support of $36,000. During the day, the pair may sink to the $34,400 mark.

If the pressure of the bears does not weaken at this level, then in the second half of this week, the price can test the support of $32,500.

Bitcoin is trading at $37,036 at press time.


Yesterday, the price of Ethereum (ETH) recovered to the $2,700 mark. The daily high is fixed at $2,725. Late in the evening, selling volumes began to pick up, and the bears pushed the price below the two-hour EMA55.


ETH/USD chart by TradingView

This morning, the pair rolled back to the area of $2,450, and if buyers fail to stop the price from sliding below the level of $2,300, then by the end of the week, one can see an update of the January low around the psychological level of $2,000.

Ethereum is trading at $2,514 at press time.


Despite yesterday’s daily high at $0.66, the price of XRP has not been able to gain a foothold above the two-hour EMA55. By the end of the day, the sellers returned the price to the support of $0.60, and at night, the bears pushed the pair even lower.


XRP/USD chart by TradingView

As of this morning, the price of XRP has tested the level of $0.59.

If the bulls fail to seize the initiative in this area for further recovery to the resistance of $0.70, then the pair may reach the support of 0.50 USD before the upcoming weekend.

XRP is trading at $0.6146 at press time.


Binance Coin (BNB) has followed the decline of Bitcoin (BTC), falling by 4.83% since yesterday.


​BNB/USD chart by TradingView

After Binance Coin (BNB) has bounced off the support at $336, it keeps trading sideways, slightly approaching the zone of the most liquidity around $400. If bulls can get to this mark and fix above it, there are chances to see a bullish trend reversal. Such a scenario is relevant until mid-February.

BNB is trading at $375.4 at press time.


Cardano (ADA) has lost less than BNB with a fall of $3.82.


ADA/USD chart by TradingView

Cardano (ADA) has come back to the zone above $1, which is good for bulls. If buyers can hold this mark and the trading volume increases, the current accumulation may be a prerequisite for further growth to the zone of the most liquidity around $1.30.

ADA is trading at $1.058 at press time.

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