Bitcoin is more likely to hit $10,000 than $30,000, finds MLIV Pulse survey

bulls beware: expects the cryptocurrency’s crash to get a whole lot worse.


The token is more likely to tumble to $10,000, cutting its value roughly in half, than it is to rally back to $30,000, according to 60% of the 950 investors who responded to the latest MLIV Pulse survey. Forty percent saw it going the other way. fell 2.4% to $20,474 on Monday morning in New York.

The lopsided prediction underscores how bearish investors have become. The crypto industry has been rocked by troubled lenders, collapsed currencies, and an end to the easy money policies of the pandemic that fueled a speculative frenzy in financial markets.

Some $2 trillion has vanished from the market value of cryptocurrencies since late last year, according to data compiled by CoinGecko.

Retail investors were more apprehensive about cryptocurrencies than their institutional counterparts, with almost a quarter declaring the asset class to be garbage. Professional investors were more open-minded toward digital assets.

But overall, this sector remains a polarizing one: while some 28% of the overall respondents expressed strong confidence that cryptocurrencies are the future of finance, 20% said they’re worthless.


has already lost more than two-thirds of its value since hitting nearly $69,000 in November and hasn’t traded as low as $10,000 since September 2020.

“It’s very easy to be fearful right now, not only in crypto, but generally in the world,” said Jared Madfes, partner at Tribe Capital, a venture capital firm. He said the expectations for a further drop in Bitcoin reflect “people’s inherent fear in the market.”

The crypto crash is likely to put further pressures on governments to step up regulations of the industry. Such supervision is seen as positive by majority of respondents, since it could improve confidence and lead to broader acceptance among institutional and retail investors.

intervention will also probably be welcomed by consumers burned by the collapse of so-called stablecoin TerraUSD and troubled middlemen like Celsius Network and broker Voyager Digital Ltd.

Central banks are also considering developing their own digital currencies for use in digital payments.

But neither the recent price drops — nor the potential challenge from central banks — are expected to significantly upend the industry by dethroning the two dominant tokens, Bitcoin and Ether. A majority of respondents anticipate that one of those two will remain a driving force in five years even while a significant share sees central bank digital currencies taking on a key role.

“Bitcoin still is powering large parts of the cryptoverse, while Ethereum is losing its lead,” said Ed Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda Corp., a foreign-exchange broker.

There was a broader consensus about one corner of the market: Nonfungible tokens. NFTs became famous for attracting valuations in the millions of dollars for pictures of monkeys during the height of the crypto boom. But the overwhelming majority of those surveyed consider them to be just art projects or status symbols, with only 9% seeing them as an investment opportunity.

Moreover, those hunting for the next asset-price bubble may do well to look elsewhere, since speculative manias rarely strike the same asset class twice. Ultimately, the next big run-up is expected by most respondents to be entirely unrelated to cryptocurrencies, with NFTs, the next generation of the internet known as web3 and other blockchain developments seen as having low chances of setting off the next frenzy.

“The next financial bubble is always something different than the last bubble, so the majority is absolutely right on this one,” said Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co.

For more markets analysis, see the MLIV blog. For previous surveys, see NI MLIVPULSE.

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ASX rebounds as Reserve Bank admits it suffered ‘reputational damage’, bitcoin holds near $US20,000

Australian shares have finally rebounded, after plummeting for seven straight days into correction territory on high inflation and recession worries.

The ASX 200 was up 1.1 per cent, to 6,505 points, by 12:25pm AEST on Tuesday.

The financial sector was boosting the market, with shares of Commonwealth Bank, Westpac, ANZ and NAB rising between 1.2 and 2.8 per cent.

It comes as Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe said he expects to discuss hiking interest rates by either 0.25 or 0.5 percentage points at the RBA’s July policy meeting.

Dr Lowe also downplayed the possibility of a larger hike, and said he does not see Australia falling into recession.

Mining giants BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue Metals also lifted sharply, by around 2 to 2.6 per cent.

Energy stocks were some of the best performers, like Whitehaven Coal (+6.9pc), Beach Energy (+4.2pc) and Paladin Energy (+7.4pc).

Shares of Novonix (+6pc), Pointsbet (+5.5pc), Chalice Mining (+4.3pc) and Imugene (+3.3pc) also rose sharply.

Posted , updated 

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Wall Street: Wall Street Week Ahead: Crypto investors face more uncertainty after rocky start to 2022

NEW YORK: Investors are bracing for more gyrations in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, as worries over a hawkish Federal Reserve threaten to squelch risk appetite across markets.

The volatility traditionally associated with cryptocurrencies has been on full display in recent weeks. Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency, is up by around 33% since Jan. 24 and recently traded at $43,850, rebounding from a tumble that cut its price in half from November’s record high. Its main rival, ether, is up around 45% since Jan. 24 at around $3,200, following a nearly 56% nosedive from its record high of $4,868, also in November.

While proponents of cryptocurrencies once touted their lack of correlation to other assets, bitcoin and its peers saw huge gains over the last two years, rallying along with stocks as the Fed and other central banks pumped unprecedented levels of stimulus into the global economy. Bitcoin is up 1,039% since March 2020 and ether has risen 2,940%, though the rallies in both cryptocurrencies have been interrupted by numerous-stomach churning selloffs.

Their recent volatility has come amid a broader market selloff driven by investors recalibrating their portfolios to account for a more aggressive Fed, which is now expected to raise rates as many as seven times this year as it fights surging inflation. The benchmark S&P 500 index is down 5.5% year-to-date, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq has lost 9.3%.

Worries that an aggressive central bank tightening cycle going forward will hamstring risky assets has made it difficult for some traders to maintain their bullish outlook on bitcoin and other cryptos, an asset class already identified with intense volatility.

Escalating tensions in Ukraine, where Washington warned a Russian invasion could begin any day, could also spark broad market moves, investors said.

Bitcoin has “really become the ultimate momentum trade and there are so many risks that can trigger a 40% drop out of nowhere,” said Ed Moya, senior analyst at Oanda.

Bitcoin’s volatility hasn’t stopped some analysts from trying to gauge the currency’s fair value or point out potentially important price levels.

Analysts at JPMorgan estimate bitcoin’s current fair value at around $38,000 – some 15% below its recent price – based on its volatility in comparison with that of gold, another asset investors often use to hedge their portfolios against inflation and economic uncertainty.

Vanda Research, meanwhile, said in a recent note that most of the bearish bets on a weaker bitcoin price were entered at around $47,000, and “there could be a large short-squeeze if the aforementioned threshold is crossed, and retail investors return to crypto-trading.”

Meanwhile, correlations between bitcoin and the S&P 500 reached an all-time high on Jan 31, according to data from BofA Global Research, undercutting the case for those hoping to use the cryptocurrency as a hedge against market turbulence.

Investors next week are expecting minutes from the Fed’s most recent monetary policy meeting, due out Wednesday. Walmart and chipmaker Nvidia Corp will be among the companies reporting results, as corporate earnings season rolls on.

Some investors are steeling themselves to ride out the volatility in bitcoin, betting that the long-term value proposition of blockchain technology, the built in supply limit, and the network effect it produces, will endure despite frequent price swings.

Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity, likened the current speculation in cryptocurrencies to the turbulence tech stocks experienced during the dot-com era more than two decades ago, a boom-and-bust period that saw a comparatively small group of companies left standing.

“Amazon is still around and Apple is still around and they’re bigger than ever and the thinking is that for bitcoin that will be the same,” he said. “But it’s not immune to those waves of speculation and sentiment.”

Bitcoin could reach $100,000 as soon as 2023, Timmer has said, based on his supply/demand models.

Others believe mature cryptocurrencies like bitcoin and ether are unlikely to deliver the kind of eye-watering gains they have notched since their founding.

Instead, they are looking to the universe of new, alternative coins that are being created to take advantage of the money pouring into the crypto space, including the metaverse and NFTs, which saw $30 billion worth of venture capital investment last year, according to PitchBook.

Some altcoins include cosmos, Terra Luna, and Polkadot, which are down around 20.5%, 38% and 25.5% year-to-date, respectively, according to coinmarketcap.com. Understanding the risks linked to them and decentralized finance is going to be one of the main challenges for investors in 2022, said Lily Francus, director of quantitative research strategy at Moody’s Analytics.

Cryptocurrencies “are going to remain very volatile going forward, but there are significant players on both the institutional side and the retail side that are still growing, so the interest is still growing,” said Oanda’s Moya.

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